Glossary

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

Definition

CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is the smoothed annual growth rate of a metric (like revenue, ARR, valuation, or user base) over a period of time, assuming it grew at a steady rate each year.

It compresses volatile year-over-year growth into a single, consistent percentage – making it ideal for comparing companies, investments, or time periods.

If your revenue grew from $120,000 to $300,000 in 3 years, CAGR tells you: “What constant annual rate would have led to this growth?”

CAGR formula

CAGR = [(Ending Value ÷ Starting Value) ^ (1 ÷ Number of Years)] – 1

Why CAGR matters

Use case Benefit
Startup growth storytelling Shows long-term momentum without short-term noise
Investor benchmarking Helps compare across companies or funds with different time frames
Valuation discussions Justifies revenue multiples by showing sustained compounding
Forecast validation Helps validate if your 3-year projections are credible
Internal planning Sets baseline for growth KPIs and budgeting assumptions

CAGR vs YoY

Metric CAGR YoY Growth
Scope Multi-year One-year change
Smoothing Evens out volatility Shows real-time spikes or drops
Use Case Long-term storytelling Performance monitoring, forecasting
Risk Hides yearly fluctuations May overemphasize outliers

When to use CAGR

In pitch decks to show:

  • Revenue or ARR trajectory
  • Customer or user base growth
  • Valuation or share price appreciation
  • Retention over multiple years (e.g., Net Revenue Retention CAGR)

In investment cases:

  • VC portfolio benchmarking
  • Fund return comparisons
  • SaaS comp sheet rankings

Red flags and misuses

Mistake Why it's risky
Using CAGR over too short a time (1-2 years) Doesn’t smooth enough. YoY might be clearer
Hiding volatility CAGR may mask steep drop followed by recovery
Applying to non-linear businesses Doesn’t reflect step-function growth (e.g., product-led virality or seasonal spikes)

Final takeaway

CAGR is the growth metric that speaks the language of investors and long-term thinkers. It compresses years of hustle into a single, clean number, but it should complement, not replace, more detailed metrics like YoY growth, retention, and margin.

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